* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942020 06/24/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 43 49 51 50 43 36 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 43 49 51 50 43 36 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 32 33 36 37 38 35 31 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 3 7 9 11 16 16 18 24 29 33 36 29 20 21 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -4 -4 -3 -4 -4 -1 0 5 3 8 0 7 7 5 5 SHEAR DIR 357 149 163 160 165 163 183 177 206 208 213 206 203 191 181 183 196 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.3 28.0 25.9 23.5 23.0 22.5 21.9 21.1 20.8 20.4 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 156 156 157 160 159 146 123 98 92 87 79 70 67 63 60 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 81 83 85 82 79 73 69 63 57 52 47 42 34 30 25 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 9 10 9 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 54 71 82 82 90 57 75 32 34 35 46 32 37 41 18 42 200 MB DIV 79 87 83 72 74 112 77 80 45 27 28 7 -15 -25 4 -16 -2 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 0 0 0 7 0 1 -7 -12 -18 -3 -6 0 0 -5 LAND (KM) 537 514 481 448 405 322 310 348 325 311 372 478 561 555 536 493 486 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.4 12.9 13.4 14.0 15.3 16.7 18.3 20.0 21.2 22.0 22.4 23.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.0 101.4 101.8 102.2 102.6 103.9 106.0 108.2 110.4 112.4 114.3 116.2 117.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 11 13 13 12 10 9 9 7 5 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 51 46 40 34 27 25 20 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 27. 28. 29. 27. 24. 21. 18. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -6. -9. -13. -16. -17. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 18. 24. 26. 25. 18. 11. 5. -3. -11. -17. -25. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.0 101.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942020 INVEST 06/24/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.83 8.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.81 7.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.58 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.35 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -8.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.92 -6.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.48 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 30.8% 28.4% 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 24.5% 0.0% Logistic: 8.3% 43.8% 29.1% 16.5% 7.6% 45.1% 69.7% 25.4% Bayesian: 4.6% 38.8% 22.0% 11.2% 3.4% 6.4% 3.7% 6.5% Consensus: 4.3% 37.8% 26.5% 9.2% 3.7% 25.5% 32.7% 10.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942020 INVEST 06/24/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##