* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932021 11/04/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 28 28 30 34 38 41 46 51 55 56 58 59 61 V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 28 28 30 34 38 41 46 51 55 56 58 59 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 25 24 23 22 21 20 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 7 5 4 6 4 8 10 12 8 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 -1 2 2 7 7 3 2 2 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 253 276 301 283 335 8 348 11 360 346 2 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.9 27.4 27.7 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 133 135 140 143 143 140 139 143 139 142 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 71 70 72 73 74 74 74 79 76 74 71 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 12 12 11 13 14 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 15 12 10 6 -5 -19 -22 -27 -23 -27 -28 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -11 -45 -28 -6 -6 7 17 32 4 19 72 75 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 374 436 481 498 518 569 656 763 810 843 898 955 979 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 8.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 5 7 8 10 10 10 12 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 3 6 3 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. 30. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 4. 8. 11. 16. 21. 25. 26. 28. 29. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.8 89.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932021 INVEST 11/04/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.07 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.0% 42.1% 18.6% 10.7% 4.1% 6.4% 2.0% 21.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 18.6% 6.2% 3.6% 1.4% 2.1% 0.7% 7.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932021 INVEST 11/04/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##