* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932021 06/12/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 22 23 26 31 37 43 48 51 54 57 58 60 63 66 V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 22 23 26 31 37 43 48 51 54 57 38 31 28 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 24 26 27 29 31 33 36 40 31 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 4 6 3 9 15 15 13 11 10 7 8 7 9 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 -3 -2 0 1 1 -1 0 -3 -3 -3 3 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 164 173 146 128 113 35 50 75 58 62 59 66 14 77 81 104 72 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.7 30.0 29.8 29.4 29.1 28.8 28.1 28.6 29.7 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 161 160 159 158 159 158 161 159 155 151 149 143 149 161 163 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -53.0 -53.4 -52.8 -53.5 -52.7 -53.2 -52.5 -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.2 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 7 6 8 6 7 5 6 4 6 4 7 5 8 7 700-500 MB RH 68 69 71 74 78 77 82 83 87 87 86 86 88 88 84 79 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 41 47 61 53 55 64 79 86 94 109 110 115 113 116 106 97 62 200 MB DIV 33 50 63 88 61 49 45 87 78 94 79 88 93 51 60 60 15 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -2 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -2 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 241 190 115 70 58 63 65 58 87 70 41 20 6 -60 -163 -78 5 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.5 15.4 15.3 15.1 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 97.4 97.0 96.5 96.0 95.5 94.8 94.3 93.9 94.1 94.5 94.8 94.9 94.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 7 6 5 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 5 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 22 21 20 20 21 24 26 26 28 25 22 18 16 10 4 15 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 31. 34. 37. 39. 42. 44. 46. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 29. 32. 33. 35. 38. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 97.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932021 INVEST 06/12/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.87 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.79 5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.93 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.86 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.8% 19.6% 0.0% 0.0% 18.6% 16.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 3.5% 3.0% 1.2% 0.2% 4.7% 2.5% 8.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 8.9% 7.6% 0.4% 0.1% 7.7% 6.4% 2.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932021 INVEST 06/12/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##