* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922021 08/07/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 37 42 51 62 71 77 82 84 82 77 70 63 56 49 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 37 42 51 62 71 77 82 84 82 77 70 63 56 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 42 47 51 53 53 49 41 33 27 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 15 14 15 17 17 21 24 21 15 14 10 4 5 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -3 -1 -3 0 -1 -1 0 5 4 4 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 62 51 48 58 63 59 61 54 49 43 55 36 79 24 254 260 236 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.0 24.6 23.5 21.7 21.4 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 153 152 151 148 146 143 139 136 134 125 111 100 81 77 70 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.2 -53.5 -52.6 -52.8 -51.8 -52.0 -50.9 -51.4 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 83 84 84 84 84 84 84 85 84 84 83 79 76 69 64 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 9 10 12 16 19 22 26 29 30 30 28 24 22 18 850 MB ENV VOR 6 8 3 7 22 18 35 46 61 56 75 73 85 79 61 52 46 200 MB DIV 88 103 75 66 99 98 119 109 119 128 81 32 21 -15 2 -6 4 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 0 0 -2 -2 -11 -13 -11 -5 -12 -1 -6 0 8 2 LAND (KM) 357 357 371 400 433 515 627 755 786 761 667 598 595 729 942 1189 1289 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.6 15.8 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.2 16.7 18.0 19.9 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.8 105.4 106.1 106.7 108.2 109.7 111.2 112.4 113.1 113.7 114.8 117.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 5 6 9 13 16 17 16 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 20 18 16 13 11 9 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 30. 32. 32. 31. 29. 27. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -6. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 9. 16. 21. 27. 31. 30. 28. 23. 17. 13. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 26. 37. 46. 52. 57. 59. 57. 52. 45. 38. 31. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 104.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 08/07/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 5.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.62 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 19.6 to 1.3 0.25 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 5.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.8% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 14.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 10.4% 3.8% 2.1% 1.1% 10.5% 45.3% 13.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% Consensus: 0.4% 10.7% 6.6% 0.7% 0.4% 8.6% 19.9% 5.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 08/07/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##