* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922021 06/11/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 28 32 41 50 56 58 57 56 51 46 43 41 39 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 28 32 41 50 56 58 57 56 51 46 43 41 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 23 24 25 28 30 33 35 34 30 25 21 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 14 11 7 12 4 7 2 8 11 15 17 11 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 1 -4 0 0 5 5 3 1 -1 4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 68 42 30 32 55 33 68 59 55 181 288 318 299 270 243 218 240 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 147 148 149 149 151 151 148 144 144 144 140 137 140 142 144 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -54.3 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -52.9 -52.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 65 65 67 68 67 64 60 58 56 51 43 39 36 36 35 33 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 9 9 8 9 9 6 4 3 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 14 8 4 8 13 11 18 28 21 21 31 53 50 25 12 -2 -19 200 MB DIV 4 -3 -4 7 36 69 59 62 29 16 -36 -110 -73 -6 -30 -26 -36 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -4 -1 -3 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1519 1586 1655 1715 1762 1875 1982 2084 2207 2351 2512 2655 2742 2772 2754 2711 2681 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.2 11.2 11.1 10.8 10.1 9.0 7.7 6.3 5.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.4 118.4 119.5 120.4 121.2 122.8 124.3 125.4 126.3 127.0 127.7 128.0 128.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 8 8 8 6 6 6 7 7 6 4 0 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 11 13 16 19 22 20 18 17 17 26 34 43 47 46 36 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. 36. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 11. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. -2. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 16. 25. 31. 33. 32. 31. 26. 21. 18. 16. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 117.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 06/11/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.21 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.46 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.9% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 3.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.4% 4.0% 0.1% 0.1% 4.3% 4.4% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 06/11/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##