* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922021 06/05/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 36 41 50 58 64 64 65 63 62 65 63 62 58 56 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 36 41 50 58 64 64 65 63 62 65 63 62 58 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 34 38 41 44 47 50 52 54 55 54 50 47 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 4 6 8 9 12 15 14 19 19 16 17 15 17 17 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 2 0 -3 -1 -1 -6 -4 0 3 3 -3 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 11 102 167 147 123 118 109 90 92 92 93 94 73 63 71 61 70 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.4 27.9 27.2 27.4 27.1 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 158 158 158 156 154 152 151 150 150 148 143 136 138 135 134 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 74 72 70 67 66 61 62 61 60 58 56 58 57 58 60 60 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 12 11 13 13 13 14 13 13 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -18 -12 -15 -13 -10 0 11 13 12 11 4 0 -7 -9 -17 -24 200 MB DIV 53 68 65 48 28 -11 4 25 17 0 2 23 64 14 25 12 -11 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 2 3 2 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 771 769 774 780 797 850 924 1013 1127 1273 1406 1508 1620 1762 1864 1966 2075 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.2 12.8 12.4 11.9 11.5 11.3 11.2 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.0 108.4 108.7 109.0 109.7 110.3 111.1 112.1 113.6 115.3 117.2 119.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 5 6 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 40 43 47 51 54 52 42 24 15 14 22 12 10 9 16 6 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 35. 37. 39. 40. 42. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 8. 7. 7. 8. 6. 6. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 16. 25. 33. 39. 39. 40. 38. 37. 40. 38. 37. 33. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.7 107.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 06/05/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.84 7.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.43 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.55 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 41.7% 27.3% 0.0% 0.0% 21.1% 17.3% 0.0% Logistic: 40.7% 76.2% 61.0% 47.6% 14.5% 41.7% 18.9% 45.9% Bayesian: 8.1% 22.1% 9.7% 3.6% 1.2% 10.0% 8.4% 0.3% Consensus: 16.3% 46.7% 32.6% 17.1% 5.2% 24.2% 14.9% 15.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 14.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 9.0% 15.0% 49.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 06/05/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##