* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922021 06/05/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 57 63 67 68 68 67 68 66 64 60 57 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 47 57 63 67 68 68 67 68 66 64 60 57 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 35 39 43 47 51 54 56 56 54 51 48 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 5 7 7 7 12 14 17 16 18 15 14 11 13 9 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 0 -1 2 1 0 -3 -4 -2 1 6 7 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 289 231 176 165 147 105 98 88 93 83 82 87 82 66 76 75 71 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.7 26.7 26.4 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 156 155 156 157 155 153 152 150 148 146 143 141 131 128 122 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 75 74 73 72 70 65 64 64 61 58 59 60 58 57 56 58 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 9 12 13 15 16 17 16 16 15 15 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -22 -19 -14 -11 -10 0 2 14 8 15 9 0 -13 -13 -22 -29 200 MB DIV 46 54 57 50 50 57 12 -24 6 5 28 38 66 35 5 -9 -8 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 743 734 730 737 754 825 890 964 1040 1164 1277 1319 1367 1471 1579 1670 1762 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.7 13.4 13.2 12.9 12.6 12.1 12.1 12.3 12.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.0 108.3 108.6 108.9 109.6 110.3 111.0 111.7 112.8 114.2 115.6 116.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 7 7 6 7 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 37 38 39 43 47 52 43 28 19 14 18 30 10 7 2 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 35. 37. 39. 40. 41. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. 12. 12. 9. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 22. 32. 38. 42. 43. 43. 42. 43. 41. 39. 35. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 107.6 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922021 INVEST 06/05/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.84 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 19.6 to 1.3 0.79 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 -4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.37 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.41 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.0% 21.7% 0.0% 0.0% 21.0% 17.2% 0.0% Logistic: 14.4% 49.3% 29.9% 19.6% 5.3% 36.1% 27.9% 38.2% Bayesian: 0.8% 10.7% 3.4% 0.9% 0.5% 4.3% 3.1% 0.4% Consensus: 5.1% 28.4% 18.3% 6.8% 1.9% 20.5% 16.1% 12.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 9.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% 17.0% 49.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922021 INVEST 06/05/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##