* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 08/13/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 33 34 36 37 37 38 38 40 43 43 44 44 45 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 33 34 36 37 37 38 38 40 43 43 44 44 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 32 31 29 28 26 25 25 25 26 27 28 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 19 21 20 21 22 22 18 13 13 10 7 10 9 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 0 0 0 -2 -4 -3 -2 -1 -2 0 -3 -6 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 26 42 54 70 77 62 66 46 60 31 46 64 65 68 101 131 147 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 139 137 136 135 135 135 135 136 137 137 137 139 138 137 136 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 63 62 61 63 58 57 56 59 58 56 53 51 49 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 13 12 12 12 10 9 9 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -7 -14 -18 -13 4 33 18 20 -8 -13 -14 -11 -8 8 6 11 200 MB DIV 47 26 24 29 42 7 33 12 8 -9 -5 3 32 8 -14 -12 -12 700-850 TADV -10 -4 -1 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 2146 2176 2203 2220 2238 2291 2338 2369 2377 2393 2401 2412 2398 2374 2340 2323 2320 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 128.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 0 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 26. 27. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 10. 13. 13. 14. 14. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.4 128.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 08/13/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.10 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.34 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -3.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.37 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.81 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 12.1% 8.7% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.6% 3.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 08/13/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##