* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 06/24/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 23 22 20 20 22 23 24 26 28 29 29 31 31 32 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 23 22 20 20 22 23 24 26 28 29 29 31 31 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 13 10 9 10 13 17 15 13 10 5 6 10 9 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 0 3 6 4 1 0 3 6 4 7 0 -5 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 108 112 106 115 137 117 111 105 117 110 114 148 236 247 210 212 219 SST (C) 27.9 27.4 26.8 26.2 25.8 25.7 26.1 26.5 27.4 27.8 27.7 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 137 130 124 120 118 123 128 138 143 141 145 144 144 144 140 138 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 60 57 54 53 49 48 42 39 40 40 42 47 50 50 46 45 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 27 8 0 -1 7 0 3 8 8 1 -1 -6 -17 -31 -41 -47 200 MB DIV 38 33 33 29 5 -30 -11 -21 -9 -39 -54 -60 -17 12 24 36 2 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 1 4 5 0 3 1 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 1460 1465 1491 1513 1553 1644 1764 1936 2152 2392 2634 2642 2594 2520 2442 2384 2378 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.1 15.4 15.7 15.8 15.9 15.5 14.6 13.2 11.6 10.0 8.8 8.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.1 121.8 122.5 123.1 123.7 124.9 126.0 127.3 128.7 130.2 131.7 132.9 133.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 6 5 7 9 10 11 10 7 3 4 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 16 8 4 1 0 0 0 2 6 10 9 13 17 20 21 19 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.6 121.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 06/24/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.35 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.31 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -3.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.66 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.9% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 06/24/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##