* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922020 06/23/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 39 40 40 38 36 33 29 25 21 18 15 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 36 39 40 40 38 36 33 29 25 21 18 15 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 26 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 4 4 8 4 7 12 12 12 14 15 19 19 18 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 6 6 4 3 3 4 5 9 7 5 0 0 0 1 4 4 SHEAR DIR 52 26 101 117 71 106 187 223 214 179 164 133 125 122 114 103 117 SST (C) 29.2 28.6 28.0 28.4 27.9 25.8 25.1 25.4 24.6 24.0 23.8 23.0 23.2 23.2 24.1 25.9 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 153 146 150 145 122 114 117 108 101 99 90 93 94 103 122 123 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 68 65 58 56 55 52 51 45 39 31 27 27 28 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 45 42 35 47 13 6 23 25 34 26 35 30 24 33 31 29 200 MB DIV 88 95 103 79 49 22 -4 3 19 3 -13 -6 3 -22 -43 -23 -26 700-850 TADV -11 -18 -6 -2 -11 -1 5 6 11 9 10 3 2 1 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 1314 1375 1417 1469 1500 1583 1689 1799 1889 1974 2059 2149 2160 2042 1917 1795 1669 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 13.2 13.8 14.3 15.4 16.1 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.0 17.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.5 117.2 118.7 120.1 121.3 123.7 125.6 127.4 129.1 130.6 132.0 133.1 134.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 15 14 13 11 9 9 8 7 6 6 7 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 16 17 29 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 24. 24. 21. 19. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 15. 15. 13. 11. 8. 4. -0. -4. -7. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.3 115.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922020 INVEST 06/23/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.73 6.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.60 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -5.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.38 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 29.3% 26.8% 0.0% 0.0% 21.7% 19.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 20.2% 13.5% 4.2% 0.7% 1.5% 0.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 16.7% 13.5% 1.4% 0.2% 7.7% 6.5% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922020 INVEST 06/23/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##