* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922019 08/11/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 22 24 30 37 41 42 40 39 39 38 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 22 24 30 37 41 42 40 39 39 38 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 23 23 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 11 11 13 12 13 15 11 7 5 4 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 -2 1 2 4 5 0 3 3 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 354 1 359 352 14 29 46 85 90 80 115 143 214 SST (C) 30.7 30.8 30.7 30.8 30.4 29.6 28.2 26.7 25.4 23.8 23.2 22.7 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 173 173 172 172 170 162 147 132 118 101 95 89 97 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 8 8 9 8 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 66 67 65 61 64 58 59 54 49 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -10 -24 -26 -10 0 -7 -15 -16 -7 1 -4 -20 200 MB DIV 16 30 19 19 27 18 0 14 13 -4 -3 -9 12 700-850 TADV -1 -3 1 2 -3 1 -5 4 0 4 8 13 15 LAND (KM) 182 223 261 309 393 478 531 625 761 882 1000 1169 1351 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.7 19.5 20.4 21.3 22.2 23.1 23.6 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 103.5 104.9 106.2 107.3 108.5 111.0 113.6 116.1 118.7 121.2 123.5 125.7 127.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 12 11 12 12 12 13 13 12 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 42 35 30 27 21 18 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 465 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -3. 3. 12. 20. 27. 30. 32. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 21. 22. 20. 19. 19. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 16.5 103.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922019 INVEST 08/11/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 152.0 40.5 to 149.3 1.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 19.6 to 1.6 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.29 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 12.3% 5.7% 2.4% 0.8% 8.8% 12.5% 14.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 4.2% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3% 2.9% 4.2% 4.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922019 INVEST 08/11/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##