* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922019 08/09/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 20 21 22 27 35 41 44 44 43 44 45 V (KT) LAND 20 21 20 21 22 27 35 41 44 44 43 44 45 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 22 24 25 25 24 22 20 17 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 12 12 11 14 20 23 21 23 19 15 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -2 2 8 0 8 7 11 1 3 4 SHEAR DIR 23 27 17 1 348 4 2 16 30 59 70 85 69 SST (C) 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.8 31.0 30.8 30.9 30.5 29.5 28.5 27.2 26.0 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 171 172 172 172 172 171 161 151 137 125 106 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 8 10 9 9 8 5 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 68 67 71 69 71 69 69 66 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -1 -3 -10 -5 6 -26 -28 -50 -30 -46 -19 -15 200 MB DIV 28 15 15 18 0 28 15 30 27 13 14 -23 7 700-850 TADV 4 1 2 2 0 0 6 -7 -1 1 -1 2 3 LAND (KM) 214 190 158 161 179 212 253 358 502 518 623 739 859 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.7 15.1 15.4 16.1 16.9 17.6 18.4 19.1 20.1 21.1 22.3 LONG(DEG W) 96.5 97.6 98.6 99.6 100.7 103.0 105.3 107.8 110.4 112.9 115.6 118.3 121.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 14 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 39 42 38 39 44 50 35 24 17 11 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -3. -3. 3. 11. 20. 28. 33. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -7. -10. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 21. 24. 24. 23. 24. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.8 96.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922019 INVEST 08/09/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 151.0 40.5 to 149.3 1.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.25 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 68.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 23.2% 13.0% 6.0% 4.3% 17.6% 23.8% 35.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 8.6% 4.4% 2.0% 1.5% 6.1% 8.1% 11.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922019 INVEST 08/09/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##