* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922019 05/29/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 47 54 58 64 65 67 69 71 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 47 42 34 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 34 41 38 32 29 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 10 12 10 11 10 14 17 9 7 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 0 -3 0 -2 -2 -2 -4 -5 -5 -8 -6 SHEAR DIR 89 94 84 85 88 76 115 85 98 124 112 110 78 SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.6 30.7 30.5 29.7 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.9 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 167 168 168 167 158 154 155 157 157 161 156 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 9 10 9 10 8 8 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 68 68 72 76 82 83 80 79 78 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 12 9 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 61 60 55 59 85 82 86 98 79 87 75 68 200 MB DIV 78 73 96 108 112 80 98 128 123 90 58 70 51 700-850 TADV 0 2 0 0 -1 -2 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 215 167 126 106 82 38 -12 -36 -40 -14 -14 -5 -58 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.4 16.4 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 96.6 96.2 95.9 95.6 95.4 95.2 95.0 94.9 94.5 94.1 94.1 94.7 95.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 2 1 1 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 33 34 35 36 35 25 22 22 25 25 27 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 4. 12. 19. 26. 30. 34. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. 1. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 1. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 22. 29. 33. 39. 40. 42. 44. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 96.6 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922019 INVEST 05/29/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.93 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 19.6 to 1.6 0.54 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.67 4.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.31 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.27 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.5% 23.5% 0.0% 0.0% 23.5% 23.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 16.3% 14.0% 5.1% 3.6% 18.0% 29.9% 34.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 5.1% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 1.0% 4.0% 40.6% Consensus: 1.1% 15.3% 13.4% 1.9% 1.2% 14.1% 19.2% 25.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922019 INVEST 05/29/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##