* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902021 10/03/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 18 17 17 17 18 22 28 33 35 36 36 32 28 24 20 16 V (KT) LAND 20 18 17 17 17 18 22 28 33 35 36 36 32 28 24 20 16 V (KT) LGEM 20 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 13 13 11 12 1 6 10 7 12 21 26 35 43 37 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 0 -2 -1 8 0 -5 -3 -4 0 4 2 0 9 8 SHEAR DIR 20 7 4 355 345 358 39 176 210 233 218 241 248 250 276 273 265 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.1 26.0 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 136 136 136 138 139 137 137 133 130 127 126 125 123 122 122 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.5 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 700-500 MB RH 45 46 46 51 55 65 70 70 69 67 64 57 53 49 49 46 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 3 4 4 5 6 8 8 8 9 12 11 12 12 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -13 -23 -24 -12 -5 -4 1 1 10 29 28 26 34 38 42 48 200 MB DIV -4 -9 8 -11 -11 23 87 81 71 38 31 47 40 2 4 11 12 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 6 4 11 9 LAND (KM) 2305 2268 2236 2200 2170 2090 1978 1893 1796 1692 1613 1555 1494 1413 1318 1162 970 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.1 12.9 12.8 12.8 12.8 13.3 13.9 14.3 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.2 134.6 135.0 135.4 135.7 136.5 137.4 138.0 138.8 139.6 140.2 140.6 141.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 4 5 4 5 4 3 3 3 4 6 8 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 6 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 32. 33. 33. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -6. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 8. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 2. 8. 13. 15. 16. 16. 12. 8. 4. 0. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 13.2 134.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902021 INVEST 10/03/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.14 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.39 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 56.6 to 0.0 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902021 INVEST 10/03/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##