* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902021 10/01/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 22 20 18 17 19 23 29 32 36 37 38 37 34 30 23 V (KT) LAND 25 24 22 20 18 17 19 23 29 32 36 37 38 37 34 30 23 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 21 19 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 19 16 15 13 12 9 10 4 5 8 12 19 23 35 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 15 15 13 10 2 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 1 -1 -1 2 8 4 SHEAR DIR 342 3 28 31 18 12 356 341 341 328 313 208 247 234 212 219 225 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.8 26.3 25.4 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 146 142 140 138 137 136 137 138 139 135 132 130 125 116 105 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 47 46 44 44 42 43 46 54 63 71 73 77 70 67 60 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -16 -13 -14 -15 -9 -13 1 -3 -4 -2 5 22 36 45 48 3 200 MB DIV 42 60 52 36 29 -6 20 34 53 56 37 41 73 97 109 109 55 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 0 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 0 6 13 24 LAND (KM) 2379 2416 2440 2382 2337 2273 2220 2178 2131 2054 1939 1841 1759 1675 1614 1559 1464 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.5 13.3 13.1 13.0 13.4 14.0 14.7 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.5 132.1 132.8 133.3 133.7 134.4 135.0 135.5 136.0 136.6 137.5 138.2 138.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 6 5 4 3 3 2 3 4 6 4 4 5 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 14 11 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 29. 30. 31. 32. 32. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -6. -2. 4. 7. 11. 12. 13. 12. 9. 5. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 131.5 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902021 INVEST 10/01/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.11 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.56 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.84 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.7% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.4% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902021 INVEST 10/01/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##