* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902021 10/01/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 22 21 19 20 24 29 31 33 35 36 36 35 33 28 V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 22 21 19 20 24 29 31 33 35 36 36 35 33 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 19 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 17 16 17 16 15 15 9 7 5 8 10 15 23 29 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 7 12 14 9 0 -5 -2 -1 0 -2 1 0 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 342 354 358 10 20 18 357 345 338 284 270 271 224 224 223 235 234 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 150 147 144 139 138 140 138 138 138 137 133 131 128 125 123 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 52 51 47 46 44 42 43 44 52 59 64 66 66 62 62 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -24 -24 -25 -24 -31 -15 -11 1 3 9 1 8 2 22 16 11 200 MB DIV -32 6 16 34 39 7 -18 21 29 50 55 59 51 38 50 64 37 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 1 7 9 LAND (KM) 2358 2409 2455 2376 2297 2170 2079 2012 1968 1970 1948 1899 1834 1778 1733 1687 1627 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.8 13.8 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.0 131.8 132.6 133.5 134.2 135.3 136.2 136.9 137.3 137.2 137.3 137.6 138.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 5 4 3 1 1 2 4 4 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 13 17 18 13 9 5 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 33. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. -1. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 131.0 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902021 INVEST 10/01/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 19.6 to 1.3 0.23 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.9 56.6 to 0.0 0.72 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.60 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.7% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 6.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 4.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 4.4% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 2.3% 2.2% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902021 INVEST 10/01/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##