* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902020 07/20/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 41 50 56 61 63 64 62 63 60 58 54 51 49 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 41 50 56 61 63 64 62 63 60 58 54 51 49 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 36 40 43 45 44 42 41 38 34 30 26 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 12 10 5 5 3 5 4 4 7 7 10 11 14 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -5 -4 0 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 43 52 58 76 89 345 319 302 211 218 203 212 208 232 236 251 246 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.7 27.4 26.2 26.2 25.7 25.5 25.3 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 150 147 149 150 149 147 143 140 127 126 121 119 117 123 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.2 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 6 700-500 MB RH 64 66 63 63 65 68 70 72 71 64 61 56 54 49 45 41 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 4 4 5 6 6 7 8 8 7 9 7 6 4 3 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 1 1 5 21 42 55 58 36 4 -18 -31 -28 -40 -32 -23 -11 200 MB DIV 42 48 50 45 38 8 -7 5 4 -5 2 0 0 -9 -26 -18 -25 700-850 TADV 4 5 6 3 2 2 4 0 0 3 -1 6 4 7 5 6 -1 LAND (KM) 1368 1452 1547 1648 1758 1994 2190 2374 2511 2218 1891 1576 1270 1006 750 504 304 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.0 13.5 13.0 12.5 11.6 11.4 11.5 12.2 13.1 14.2 15.3 16.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.3 120.1 120.9 121.8 122.8 125.1 127.5 129.9 132.4 135.1 137.9 140.6 143.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 15 14 14 12 12 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 24 28 27 18 12 11 14 13 16 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 32. 34. 34. 34. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 7. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 16. 25. 31. 36. 38. 39. 37. 38. 35. 33. 29. 26. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.3 119.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902020 INVEST 07/20/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.54 4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.40 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -5.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.57 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 21.8% 20.1% 0.0% 0.0% 18.9% 19.2% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 26.0% 16.7% 9.1% 8.0% 22.5% 27.0% 48.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 10.2% 2.1% 0.5% 0.5% 2.7% 2.5% 0.1% Consensus: 2.0% 19.3% 13.0% 3.2% 2.8% 14.7% 16.3% 16.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 8.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902020 INVEST 07/20/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##