* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942021 11/07/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 26 25 22 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 26 25 22 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 19 19 19 18 17 19 24 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 2 1 8 12 8 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 217 219 216 221 233 219 209 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.1 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 142 141 141 142 141 135 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 59 61 64 67 63 60 55 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -28 -28 -26 -19 -39 -37 -29 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 33 51 57 47 15 15 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1032 1081 1098 1090 1086 1060 1137 1296 1486 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 7 7 7 9 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 8 7 6 7 9 14 3 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -17. -17. -16. -14. -12. -10. -7. -7. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 112.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942021 INVEST 11/07/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 2.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.42 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 19.6 to 1.3 0.07 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.04 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.17 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 9.1% 5.0% 2.9% 0.0% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 3.4% 1.8% 1.0% 0.0% 2.4% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942021 INVEST 11/07/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##