* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942021 06/17/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 40 47 56 54 48 45 43 42 43 45 47 49 48 50 V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 40 47 56 54 48 45 43 42 43 45 47 49 48 50 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 30 33 36 40 38 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 7 8 11 15 14 22 17 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 2 4 3 9 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 58 67 71 79 105 115 131 149 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 29.3 29.0 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 166 166 166 165 157 153 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 6 6 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 85 85 84 79 78 74 69 68 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 14 16 16 8 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 75 71 64 71 84 89 83 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 122 123 84 81 111 102 86 93 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -6 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 257 247 237 228 229 169 108 48 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 99.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 31 32 31 29 25 16 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 393 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -1. 4. 12. 19. 26. 31. 34. 37. 41. 44. 47. 50. 53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. -2. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 22. 31. 29. 23. 20. 18. 17. 18. 20. 22. 24. 23. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.2 99.7 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942021 INVEST 06/17/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 140.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.92 7.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.71 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.51 3.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -1.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.91 -5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.27 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 40.2% 22.9% 0.0% 0.0% 23.4% 32.6% 0.0% Logistic: 16.6% 63.8% 42.4% 31.4% 8.2% 61.0% 39.6% 10.5% Bayesian: 4.5% 17.9% 17.5% 5.4% 0.1% 4.0% 2.5% 0.5% Consensus: 7.0% 40.6% 27.6% 12.3% 2.8% 29.4% 24.9% 3.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 17.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 10.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942021 INVEST 06/17/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##