* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962021 09/06/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 42 53 66 75 79 76 69 60 54 47 43 37 34 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 42 53 66 75 79 76 69 60 54 47 43 37 34 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 32 38 45 53 56 55 49 41 33 26 21 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 2 7 7 9 14 20 25 21 20 12 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -3 -5 -4 -5 -3 3 5 2 2 5 3 4 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 16 42 25 35 332 315 263 239 236 192 175 174 165 158 155 200 273 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.3 27.4 25.7 25.3 23.6 22.0 21.7 20.8 20.6 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 152 150 150 147 147 147 139 121 118 99 82 79 69 65 64 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 71 71 70 66 65 63 62 59 55 53 50 47 41 38 35 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 10 12 15 20 22 23 22 21 18 18 16 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 20 27 27 18 18 49 64 68 67 42 34 11 13 8 18 12 12 200 MB DIV 40 54 45 29 21 47 73 23 10 2 -27 -8 -8 -14 -1 6 -5 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 2 6 3 5 -2 11 -2 4 -2 LAND (KM) 290 298 309 321 332 350 384 356 320 348 457 498 652 830 980 1053 1096 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.7 17.9 18.0 18.4 18.9 19.7 20.7 22.2 23.7 25.1 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.2 106.9 107.3 107.6 107.8 108.3 109.0 110.2 112.0 114.2 116.7 119.0 121.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 4 3 2 3 6 8 11 13 14 12 12 10 9 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 21 20 20 19 15 13 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 29. 30. 28. 26. 23. 20. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 4. 2. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 18. 22. 21. 18. 13. 12. 9. 7. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 28. 41. 50. 54. 51. 44. 35. 29. 22. 18. 12. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.0 106.2 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962021 INVEST 09/06/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.87 6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.4% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0% 18.7% 16.9% 0.0% Logistic: 6.8% 33.3% 17.7% 10.5% 3.9% 23.7% 28.8% 7.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 2.3% 19.1% 12.4% 3.5% 1.3% 14.2% 15.3% 2.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 15.0% 29.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962021 INVEST 09/06/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##