* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962021 09/06/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 48 59 72 76 73 72 66 56 50 44 39 35 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 48 59 72 76 73 72 66 56 50 44 39 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 35 41 47 51 51 48 41 33 27 21 18 15 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 5 2 3 3 5 6 9 14 11 15 18 19 25 16 12 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -1 -3 -4 -4 -4 2 5 3 6 3 3 2 1 3 SHEAR DIR 34 25 28 358 315 319 266 264 241 201 194 162 172 152 172 167 202 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.3 26.7 25.1 23.6 22.1 20.6 19.7 19.1 19.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 154 153 152 152 150 148 148 132 115 99 83 67 60 59 58 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -52.5 -52.9 -52.3 -52.6 -51.9 -51.8 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.3 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 7 6 7 5 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 74 72 72 71 67 66 63 61 55 55 52 52 48 44 40 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 9 9 10 14 17 21 22 20 20 19 16 15 14 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 23 23 30 33 19 40 44 66 53 57 21 14 3 -5 -1 15 19 200 MB DIV 52 55 68 67 31 41 44 38 11 20 -36 -3 -32 6 -11 12 -7 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 3 6 -1 1 -1 0 3 2 2 LAND (KM) 276 270 262 260 257 260 275 328 188 213 269 304 419 542 631 613 608 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.1 17.5 17.8 18.1 18.6 19.2 20.1 21.3 22.8 24.3 25.9 27.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.3 106.0 106.5 106.8 107.0 107.4 108.0 109.0 110.6 112.6 114.9 117.2 119.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 4 3 4 5 8 11 13 13 12 11 10 9 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 19 20 20 21 23 14 20 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 25. 28. 30. 31. 30. 27. 23. 20. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 6. 10. 18. 21. 18. 18. 15. 10. 8. 7. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 23. 34. 47. 51. 48. 47. 41. 31. 25. 19. 14. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.6 105.3 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962021 INVEST 09/06/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.81 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.46 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 19.6 to 1.3 0.81 5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 71.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.16 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.5% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.2% 16.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 19.3% 9.9% 5.2% 1.4% 16.8% 32.1% 4.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.0% 13.4% 9.4% 1.7% 0.5% 11.4% 16.1% 1.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 14.0% 23.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962021 INVEST 09/06/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##