* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962021 09/05/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 23 26 32 42 55 68 75 78 78 74 65 59 54 48 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 26 32 42 55 68 75 78 78 74 65 59 54 48 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 27 32 38 43 47 47 43 36 30 25 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 13 10 11 10 8 5 7 9 12 11 7 10 9 20 22 22 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -3 0 -1 -4 -3 -2 -2 2 2 0 0 0 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 52 60 52 36 23 351 307 306 285 272 246 179 152 160 170 183 218 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.1 28.0 24.9 23.5 21.7 21.4 21.0 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 150 151 151 153 154 158 161 157 146 114 100 80 76 71 67 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -52.8 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 6 6 7 7 8 6 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 79 79 81 80 80 76 72 70 66 60 54 53 49 48 42 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 7 9 10 13 17 21 23 24 25 23 21 20 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 18 28 27 25 25 50 42 62 60 72 63 46 28 12 17 0 0 200 MB DIV 14 36 61 56 47 89 69 63 44 20 18 3 -17 -16 3 6 14 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 -1 2 2 6 1 11 -4 LAND (KM) 356 339 302 267 236 207 157 118 140 201 142 236 378 608 830 974 1090 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.2 17.9 18.8 20.1 21.4 22.7 24.1 25.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.8 103.4 103.9 104.2 104.5 105.0 105.3 105.9 107.0 108.9 111.5 114.5 117.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 7 10 12 15 17 16 15 12 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 15 17 18 19 19 20 21 23 19 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 32. 36. 38. 38. 37. 35. 33. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 2. -1. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 20. 23. 24. 23. 19. 14. 12. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 22. 35. 48. 55. 58. 58. 54. 45. 40. 34. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.6 102.8 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962021 INVEST 09/05/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 4.6% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 8.4% 10.0% 6.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 2.8% 3.3% 2.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962021 INVEST 09/05/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##