* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP132020 08/28/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 40 42 42 43 44 43 42 44 44 45 46 47 50 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 35 37 37 38 39 38 37 39 39 40 41 42 45 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 33 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 11 11 12 13 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 74 75 35 40 38 62 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.6 30.0 29.8 28.7 25.2 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 161 165 162 151 115 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.5 -50.3 -50.0 -50.4 -50.6 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 7 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 67 67 70 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 51 58 51 56 11 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 43 29 31 23 1 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -4 -16 -15 -17 -13 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 90 116 92 32 -14 8 192 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.9 23.4 23.7 24.0 24.7 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.7 108.5 109.4 110.2 112.2 114.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 18 23 25 12 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 13 CX,CY: -7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.4 106.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132020 HERNAN 08/28/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 7.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.41 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.35 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.18 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -5.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.2% 24.8% 21.5% 14.8% 11.6% 17.9% 16.5% 10.4% Logistic: 2.8% 9.8% 4.4% 1.3% 1.0% 2.4% 0.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 11.9% 8.7% 5.4% 4.2% 6.8% 5.7% 3.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132020 HERNAN 08/28/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##