* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/21/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 32 29 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 35 32 29 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 34 30 26 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 12 15 18 17 16 24 26 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 10 8 4 7 6 2 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 200 176 171 173 182 204 205 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 24.9 24.2 24.3 23.5 22.9 22.4 21.4 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 112 105 106 98 91 84 74 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 56 54 55 54 48 47 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 14 14 13 12 11 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 17 2 9 7 -4 5 14 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 0 17 20 3 11 32 26 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -12 -9 -9 -10 -3 0 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 233 236 231 247 317 445 523 506 425 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.3 26.0 26.8 27.5 28.6 29.4 30.4 31.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.6 115.4 116.2 117.2 118.2 120.2 121.5 122.4 122.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 11 9 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. -9. -15. -20. -21. -22. -23. -24. -27. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -13. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -11. -14. -20. -25. -33. -43. -47. -52. -56. -60. -65. -68. -73. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 24.6 114.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/21/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.27 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.24 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.21 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 255.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/21/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##