* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FAUSTO EP112020 08/16/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 36 34 29 25 22 21 21 22 21 20 17 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 36 34 29 25 22 21 21 22 21 20 17 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 35 33 28 24 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 11 15 16 10 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 5 1 0 -1 -2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 331 298 281 249 256 281 285 254 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.1 24.2 23.5 22.6 22.2 22.2 22.6 22.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 116 107 99 89 84 84 88 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 64 59 54 53 48 44 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 11 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 33 12 -2 -21 -24 -40 -30 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 32 24 9 -3 -1 -5 -15 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -20 -10 -4 1 5 14 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 857 887 880 942 1026 1248 1420 1610 1765 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.2 21.3 22.4 23.2 23.9 24.6 24.5 23.9 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.0 120.2 121.4 122.9 124.3 127.0 129.3 131.5 133.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 16 16 15 14 11 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 10 CX,CY: -1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -10. -13. -14. -14. -13. -14. -15. -18. -20. -21. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.2 119.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112020 FAUSTO 08/16/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.29 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.52 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.27 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 13.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 4.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112020 FAUSTO 08/16/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##