* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112020 08/16/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 36 31 28 25 23 22 22 22 21 18 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 36 31 28 25 23 22 22 22 21 18 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 32 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 6 9 10 11 19 17 16 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 4 3 2 -1 0 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 350 312 289 285 274 281 276 254 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 25.8 25.0 24.1 23.3 22.2 22.0 22.1 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 123 115 106 97 85 82 83 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.2 -51.0 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 67 64 60 55 50 47 43 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 13 11 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 32 31 11 -12 -35 -23 -44 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 36 42 24 13 -9 -12 -2 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -13 -9 -7 -4 11 12 12 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 914 893 878 891 931 1129 1289 1447 1630 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 20.4 21.5 22.5 23.4 24.5 25.3 25.2 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.8 119.6 120.3 121.6 122.9 125.7 128.3 130.7 132.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 14 13 11 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 6. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.2 118.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112020 ELEVEN 08/16/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.39 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.33 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 56.6 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.9% 4.8% 3.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 8.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112020 ELEVEN 08/16/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##