* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELIDA EP092020 08/11/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 76 75 72 68 57 46 34 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 76 75 72 68 57 46 34 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 76 75 71 66 53 42 33 26 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 5 7 11 9 11 9 15 20 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 1 3 3 2 2 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 331 288 252 202 208 227 189 205 204 210 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 26.8 25.8 25.2 24.9 23.6 23.2 22.5 22.3 22.0 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 133 122 116 112 98 93 85 84 80 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -50.6 -50.6 -50.8 -50.6 -50.9 -50.7 -51.3 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 59 57 55 51 44 36 29 27 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 20 20 17 14 10 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 15 14 1 -3 -20 0 11 2 0 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 -3 -16 -6 5 9 0 10 2 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 0 0 1 10 9 8 4 11 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 372 436 462 496 557 632 685 734 829 936 1005 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.4 23.4 24.0 24.7 25.4 25.9 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 112.4 113.7 114.9 116.0 117.1 119.0 120.4 121.5 122.9 124.2 125.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 11 11 8 7 6 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -11. -17. -22. -26. -30. -34. -37. -39. -42. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -14. -19. -22. -25. -23. -21. -19. -18. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -3. -7. -18. -29. -41. -51. -60. -68. -71. -73. -75. -75. -77. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 20.4 112.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092020 ELIDA 08/11/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.09 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 19.6 to 1.4 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.17 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 428.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.1% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 1.3% 1.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 6.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092020 ELIDA 08/11/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##