* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/26/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 68 65 63 59 56 54 51 48 47 46 46 43 41 37 35 V (KT) LAND 75 71 68 65 63 59 56 54 51 48 47 46 46 43 41 37 35 V (KT) LGEM 75 72 69 66 63 58 53 49 47 47 47 47 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 19 18 20 22 19 20 24 24 23 15 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 9 6 0 5 4 1 -2 0 3 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 200 200 200 197 196 206 215 228 212 198 149 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.8 27.2 27.1 26.7 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.1 28.3 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 138 137 133 140 143 148 150 151 148 150 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.5 -53.3 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -54.6 -54.3 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 11 11 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 38 36 35 36 36 37 38 40 42 47 45 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 14 13 13 12 10 8 6 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -16 -19 -23 -24 -30 -45 -58 -57 -59 -44 -51 -57 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 46 41 26 31 22 15 2 12 -9 -14 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 1 -7 -9 4 -2 0 3 0 0 6 -1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 101 39 24 2 105 436 779 1134 1502 1878 2274 2651 2806 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.3 22.6 23.0 23.6 23.8 24.2 24.4 24.6 25.1 25.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 155.0 156.5 157.9 159.4 160.9 164.3 167.6 171.1 174.7 178.4 182.3 186.0 189.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 15 16 15 17 16 18 17 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 8 12 10 5 14 19 23 17 21 13 16 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -11. -13. -15. -14. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -12. -16. -19. -21. -24. -27. -28. -29. -29. -32. -34. -38. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 20.9 155.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/26/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.17 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 726.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 56.6 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/26/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##