* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/26/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 71 66 64 58 55 52 50 44 43 41 40 38 36 32 30 V (KT) LAND 80 75 71 66 64 58 55 52 50 44 43 41 40 38 36 32 30 V (KT) LGEM 80 76 72 69 65 59 54 50 45 42 41 40 39 39 41 43 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 19 17 18 22 19 18 19 23 24 17 16 8 8 22 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 4 8 1 6 5 7 3 3 5 1 5 -6 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 207 213 205 195 191 199 200 203 202 216 221 222 243 293 348 5 359 SST (C) 25.5 25.9 26.2 26.8 27.3 26.8 27.4 27.4 28.0 28.3 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.5 27.7 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 120 124 127 133 138 133 140 140 147 150 146 145 148 151 143 133 131 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 6 5 7 7 8 9 11 10 11 10 11 9 9 700-500 MB RH 46 42 41 38 37 36 35 37 38 41 42 44 43 46 46 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 14 15 13 13 11 9 6 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -17 -17 -12 -10 -23 -32 -40 -41 -46 -52 -36 -57 -44 -83 -49 -75 200 MB DIV 17 28 31 37 39 18 20 23 9 10 -11 -11 -13 -2 -10 19 23 700-850 TADV 5 9 6 -5 -9 3 -2 0 -4 -6 -4 -2 -8 2 -4 3 -1 LAND (KM) 288 176 116 53 36 73 390 726 1079 1455 1801 2119 2379 2699 2785 2528 2335 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.5 21.9 22.6 23.3 23.8 24.1 24.4 24.7 25.3 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 152.1 153.5 154.9 156.3 157.7 160.4 163.7 167.0 170.5 174.2 177.6 180.7 183.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 14 16 16 16 16 15 13 13 15 14 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 7 13 6 12 14 22 17 15 14 15 16 5 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -6. -9. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -16. -22. -25. -28. -30. -36. -37. -39. -40. -42. -44. -48. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 20.1 152.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/26/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.07 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.10 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.33 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.01 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 740.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.07 -0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.89 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.39 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 13.0% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.3% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/26/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##