* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/22/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 70 75 84 87 84 73 66 57 52 46 41 37 32 31 V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 70 75 84 87 84 73 66 57 52 46 40 36 32 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 59 62 64 68 72 71 66 60 54 49 43 39 34 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 5 6 6 1 1 2 1 5 6 10 14 16 22 26 27 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -3 0 1 0 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 2 2 SHEAR DIR 341 327 320 319 357 209 81 61 317 292 269 269 262 259 244 247 240 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.6 25.4 25.2 25.2 25.5 25.6 26.0 27.0 27.6 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 152 150 149 146 142 119 117 116 119 121 125 137 143 141 142 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 8 9 700-500 MB RH 69 70 72 70 70 66 62 60 56 53 50 46 43 41 43 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 16 17 17 17 19 19 16 15 13 13 11 9 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 42 53 54 53 44 26 6 8 5 0 0 -1 -6 -8 -15 -27 -25 200 MB DIV 61 45 36 41 71 52 35 25 -16 14 0 -13 -2 -8 4 -8 14 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 1 9 8 1 -2 2 3 0 3 -1 -1 0 3 LAND (KM) 2027 2123 2223 2300 2367 2374 2040 1715 1374 1057 769 474 181 79 227 457 733 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.3 12.6 13.8 15.2 16.4 17.6 18.4 18.8 19.0 19.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.1 127.3 128.5 129.7 130.9 133.3 136.1 138.9 141.9 144.8 147.5 150.3 153.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 14 15 15 15 14 13 13 15 18 18 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 13 12 15 13 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 21 15 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 1. 1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 7. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 29. 32. 29. 18. 11. 2. -3. -9. -14. -18. -23. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.1 126.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/22/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 6.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.83 9.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.43 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 7.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 183.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 -6.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.62 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.1% 50.1% 36.9% 26.5% 18.0% 36.5% 26.3% 11.2% Logistic: 23.5% 50.4% 38.5% 26.5% 15.2% 23.7% 6.4% 1.8% Bayesian: 2.2% 19.5% 6.9% 3.4% 0.5% 2.7% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 14.9% 40.0% 27.5% 18.8% 11.2% 21.0% 11.0% 4.3% DTOPS: 19.0% 40.0% 32.0% 27.0% 22.0% 41.0% 13.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/22/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##