* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DOUGLAS EP082020 07/21/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 66 70 74 79 80 78 73 67 60 58 55 52 47 45 44 V (KT) LAND 55 61 66 70 74 79 80 78 73 67 60 58 55 52 47 45 44 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 67 71 74 79 79 73 65 58 53 49 46 41 36 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 5 7 4 2 5 6 1 3 4 10 11 18 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 -3 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 23 5 2 348 333 283 330 125 150 223 261 252 274 266 268 257 275 SST (C) 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 27.6 25.7 26.1 25.5 25.8 25.7 26.2 26.7 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 152 154 153 152 150 142 122 126 120 123 122 129 134 140 139 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 63 67 70 72 72 71 67 62 61 56 52 49 45 41 41 42 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 17 18 18 17 15 12 13 12 10 6 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 21 37 45 60 56 43 26 6 3 0 -3 -3 -5 -6 -4 -10 -12 200 MB DIV 20 43 55 47 36 45 31 39 20 -26 -15 -18 -19 -16 -22 -6 -2 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 1 5 10 3 -2 0 1 -1 3 6 2 -2 LAND (KM) 1803 1903 2004 2115 2231 2398 2348 2015 1715 1403 1077 780 491 176 272 421 618 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.4 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.4 13.4 14.7 15.7 16.5 17.1 17.5 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 123.6 124.7 125.8 127.2 128.6 131.1 133.7 136.5 139.1 141.9 144.9 147.7 150.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 14 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 15 19 19 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 13 14 13 18 18 8 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 26 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. -1. -0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 19. 24. 25. 23. 18. 12. 5. 3. 0. -3. -8. -10. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.6 123.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/21/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.52 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 8.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.73 8.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.38 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 8.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -6.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.91 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.9% 49.5% 38.7% 32.9% 18.7% 32.0% 28.1% 11.1% Logistic: 15.6% 31.7% 27.0% 16.5% 11.3% 11.4% 10.1% 7.9% Bayesian: 4.7% 20.9% 5.1% 1.7% 2.2% 7.2% 4.9% 0.0% Consensus: 14.8% 34.0% 23.6% 17.0% 10.7% 16.9% 14.4% 6.4% DTOPS: 18.0% 44.0% 37.0% 35.0% 26.0% 31.0% 14.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 DOUGLAS 07/21/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##