* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082020 07/20/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 44 50 53 55 57 56 56 55 54 51 49 48 49 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 44 50 53 55 57 56 56 55 54 51 49 48 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 45 47 46 43 39 36 33 30 27 24 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 6 4 5 5 7 5 7 5 5 5 6 13 13 19 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 0 0 -1 -1 1 0 -3 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 29 52 43 360 339 297 288 217 249 220 235 216 244 252 268 254 269 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.7 28.0 26.3 26.3 25.6 25.6 25.9 25.9 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 151 148 150 148 149 148 143 146 128 129 122 121 125 126 137 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 5 5 7 7 700-500 MB RH 63 64 67 69 68 72 72 71 66 65 62 59 50 44 39 36 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 7 6 5 3 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 17 28 27 35 53 47 30 0 -14 -30 -31 -40 -23 -34 -33 -44 200 MB DIV 69 59 37 28 13 4 -5 0 -11 3 2 -3 -21 -22 -15 -25 -11 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 4 5 6 0 0 2 0 2 2 4 5 7 2 2 LAND (KM) 1470 1562 1645 1758 1874 2096 2311 2488 2206 1901 1598 1261 871 534 270 216 468 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.2 12.9 12.5 12.1 11.8 11.8 12.3 13.4 14.2 15.0 15.9 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 119.8 120.7 121.6 122.8 124.0 126.7 129.4 132.2 135.1 137.8 140.5 143.5 146.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 11 12 13 13 14 15 14 14 14 16 16 15 17 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 33 28 20 12 11 11 11 15 10 13 1 1 0 0 0 0 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 28. 29. 29. 29. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 11. 14. 20. 23. 25. 27. 26. 26. 25. 24. 21. 19. 18. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.5 119.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP082020 EIGHT 07/20/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 7.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.70 6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.38 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 134.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -5.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.53 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 25.0% 24.2% 16.9% 0.0% 21.2% 20.2% 12.4% Logistic: 6.1% 19.9% 18.5% 9.0% 5.3% 21.5% 33.0% 47.8% Bayesian: 1.5% 27.8% 6.9% 1.3% 0.5% 2.5% 2.4% 0.1% Consensus: 6.5% 24.2% 16.5% 9.1% 1.9% 15.1% 18.6% 20.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 6.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082020 EIGHT 07/20/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##