* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992020 08/25/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 28 23 25 25 25 23 23 22 23 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 28 30 31 28 23 25 25 25 23 23 22 23 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 21 21 23 33 32 34 40 24 16 24 35 35 30 28 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 0 3 3 5 7 2 4 5 7 3 -2 1 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 78 78 81 73 65 72 55 58 67 63 84 85 96 84 83 78 67 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.5 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.9 27.1 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 145 147 147 153 150 151 152 147 141 139 135 130 129 132 138 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 700-500 MB RH 61 63 63 63 63 63 61 67 72 72 70 74 77 79 76 77 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 12 8 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 57 53 43 54 64 75 58 45 36 55 37 26 38 29 34 35 200 MB DIV 37 26 52 53 59 62 54 42 43 92 85 69 59 48 47 54 26 700-850 TADV -4 0 0 0 -2 0 -8 -4 -6 0 1 1 4 -2 -1 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1195 1187 1173 1159 1139 1066 973 866 740 595 505 421 345 303 326 317 281 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.2 18.1 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.6 117.6 117.4 117.2 116.9 115.9 114.6 112.9 111.1 109.8 109.2 108.9 108.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 2 3 6 7 9 8 5 4 6 4 2 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 14 14 15 23 25 15 15 15 10 7 5 3 3 5 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. 35. 36. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -10. -17. -22. -24. -24. -26. -27. -29. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 3. -2. -0. 0. -0. -2. -2. -3. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.9 117.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992020 INVEST 08/25/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 56.6 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.12 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992020 INVEST 08/25/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##