* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982020 11/17/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 34 34 35 34 32 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 33 34 34 35 34 32 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 6 10 13 19 22 23 23 23 34 48 56 61 67 71 73 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 -1 1 6 4 10 1 7 5 5 4 7 6 3 0 SHEAR DIR 39 229 248 254 261 262 260 254 284 266 243 239 234 234 235 249 256 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.2 26.6 25.7 25.3 25.4 24.5 23.7 23.3 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.7 23.5 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 143 136 130 120 115 117 108 100 94 89 92 94 99 96 96 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -54.3 -54.9 -55.4 -55.4 -55.7 -56.0 -56.1 -56.0 -55.8 -55.3 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 1 1 0 1 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 49 47 44 41 39 36 34 33 33 29 24 20 22 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -12 -17 -35 -34 -27 -23 -27 -51 -60 -85 -98 -89 -52 -26 -8 1 200 MB DIV 46 52 49 14 -16 -35 -80 -57 -66 -5 30 54 39 30 -14 5 5 700-850 TADV 0 4 4 1 0 9 6 6 12 15 11 -1 -14 -20 -10 -3 4 LAND (KM) 926 929 942 974 998 1048 1090 1203 1292 1374 1395 1317 1187 1079 969 857 710 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.7 17.5 18.3 18.8 19.6 20.7 22.2 23.4 23.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.8 113.9 114.9 116.0 116.9 118.7 120.2 122.0 124.0 126.1 127.4 127.2 126.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 10 11 11 8 5 6 7 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 16. 18. 19. 18. 15. 13. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -4. -7. -12. -18. -25. -31. -38. -49. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. -2. -8. -12. -18. -23. -31. -40. -51. -68. -84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.0 112.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982020 INVEST 11/17/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.69 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9999.0 2.7 to 106.7 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 233.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 56.6 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 11.8% 14.8% 12.2% 8.5% 2.8% 3.9% 0.9% 0.3% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982020 INVEST 11/17/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##