* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972020 11/03/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 40 35 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 40 35 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 40 39 33 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 13 15 20 36 38 36 35 40 38 43 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 1 -1 5 11 4 4 4 3 6 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 257 261 253 243 234 241 230 233 222 217 226 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.4 27.8 27.4 27.2 26.7 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.0 26.1 26.6 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 143 139 136 131 125 125 124 121 123 128 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -54.2 -54.3 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 70 71 70 69 66 56 50 43 42 39 39 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 17 18 17 16 13 11 8 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 14 13 8 4 -1 -9 0 -3 15 12 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 90 104 103 94 79 40 2 -14 -1 7 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -6 -4 -1 2 14 13 4 0 -4 -2 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1176 1165 1176 1191 1197 1231 1335 1447 1536 1650 1798 1944 2066 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 13 12 10 10 8 6 5 6 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 11 8 5 5 2 1 1 0 0 0 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 19. 19. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -4. -10. -17. -23. -28. -32. -34. -34. -35. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. -14. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 5. 0. -7. -15. -25. -34. -39. -42. -45. -44. -43. -44. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.7 115.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972020 INVEST 11/03/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.63 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 19.6 to 1.4 0.20 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.66 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -5.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 22.7% 21.1% 14.7% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 3.5% 1.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 9.2% 7.8% 5.2% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972020 INVEST 11/03/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##