* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972020 11/03/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 29 30 30 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 29 30 30 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 12 16 14 13 24 37 42 45 44 51 52 60 64 78 93 82 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 2 1 4 11 3 6 7 0 2 -3 -2 -8 -18 -12 SHEAR DIR 233 269 268 251 250 246 230 235 231 233 235 237 244 243 251 244 255 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.4 26.8 25.9 25.6 25.4 24.2 25.9 27.3 27.3 24.2 23.3 7.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 151 150 147 139 131 121 118 118 107 127 142 143 112 104 70 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -53.2 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -55.3 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 73 69 69 70 66 63 56 51 48 41 36 27 28 38 60 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 17 17 19 17 16 14 12 9 7 6 6 6 5 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 29 23 12 16 21 9 0 -10 -1 17 27 9 32 -16 -22 -82 -60 200 MB DIV 134 116 101 115 116 60 26 -2 0 21 6 2 -15 13 39 54 37 700-850 TADV -1 -6 -11 -4 -3 6 11 13 5 -10 -23 -28 11 23 176 85 -55 LAND (KM) 1185 1193 1196 1203 1208 1173 1118 1083 967 771 492 71 -100 -612 -641 -999 -974 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.6 14.2 15.0 16.9 18.8 20.2 21.5 22.7 23.7 24.9 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.6 115.7 116.8 117.9 119.8 121.0 121.7 121.6 120.2 117.3 113.0 108.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 12 13 13 12 9 7 7 12 17 23 24 28 34 40 47 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 15 12 9 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 17. 22. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 28. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. -6. -15. -24. -33. -40. -46. -53. -63. -83. -99. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -2. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 2. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. -2. -11. -22. -32. -39. -46. -52. -62. -83.-100. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 113.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972020 INVEST 11/03/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.78 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.39 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.77 6.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -5.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -1.9 0.43 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.0% 19.7% 0.0% 0.0% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 6.9% 3.1% 1.5% 0.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 1.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 9.5% 7.9% 0.6% 0.1% 5.8% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972020 INVEST 11/03/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##