* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972020 08/25/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 35 33 35 36 37 35 33 31 29 25 23 24 27 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 35 33 35 36 37 35 33 31 29 25 23 24 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 32 31 29 27 24 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 22 20 22 26 20 16 20 21 21 23 21 27 33 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 1 1 7 4 1 -3 0 1 3 -1 -5 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 82 77 71 62 64 69 75 63 84 101 93 99 119 140 133 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 27.2 26.7 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 143 142 145 148 135 129 134 133 132 131 129 130 135 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -50.9 -50.6 -50.6 -50.5 -50.7 -51.1 -51.0 -51.3 -50.9 -51.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 74 73 75 76 79 75 78 78 74 69 67 69 66 63 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 41 32 32 38 55 69 81 71 86 77 52 63 51 34 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 98 110 104 83 77 70 64 67 47 66 58 39 27 22 9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -8 -14 -13 -10 -10 -6 -5 -1 2 0 2 4 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 432 389 345 326 306 221 250 255 171 256 387 463 497 538 581 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 3 2 4 8 7 7 8 7 7 6 3 2 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 13 13 13 14 15 7 4 3 2 1 2 1 2 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. 26. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -13. -17. -18. -19. -22. -23. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -5. -7. -6. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.3 107.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972020 INVEST 08/25/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972020 INVEST 08/25/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##