* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972020 08/25/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 30 31 30 31 33 34 33 33 31 29 26 23 21 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 30 31 30 31 33 34 33 33 31 29 26 23 21 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 22 21 20 18 17 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 24 23 24 23 23 25 19 17 11 9 8 12 14 19 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -1 0 1 6 3 0 -3 -1 3 5 3 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 82 79 80 75 69 61 69 70 64 68 78 121 126 119 132 160 183 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.0 26.3 27.0 26.4 25.2 25.3 25.6 25.5 24.5 23.2 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 146 144 142 138 132 125 132 127 115 117 120 118 107 94 84 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -51.6 -51.9 -51.4 -51.1 -50.6 -50.5 -50.6 -50.6 -50.5 -50.5 -50.8 -50.8 -50.7 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 71 71 74 77 73 72 72 73 69 64 59 50 45 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 10 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 53 62 61 60 66 60 65 79 73 83 52 55 62 50 38 9 200 MB DIV 98 100 105 105 103 67 81 66 83 48 22 20 16 9 6 -8 -9 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -8 -7 -16 -12 -6 -12 -9 -11 -8 7 20 10 5 0 -3 LAND (KM) 545 521 492 469 441 399 318 262 274 114 89 189 381 491 545 620 692 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.5 16.7 17.0 17.5 18.5 19.7 21.0 22.1 23.0 23.5 23.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.5 108.5 108.5 108.4 108.3 108.2 108.0 108.1 108.3 109.3 111.1 113.5 115.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 7 6 8 11 11 11 8 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 13 12 10 8 4 1 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. 27. 27. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -6. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. -12. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -2. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.8 108.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972020 INVEST 08/25/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 102.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 74.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972020 INVEST 08/25/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##