* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972020 07/05/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 36 39 44 51 61 66 74 79 81 75 67 61 56 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 36 39 44 51 61 66 74 79 81 75 67 61 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 34 34 33 33 32 33 35 39 43 41 34 28 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 15 13 15 19 24 20 15 14 6 6 8 3 8 7 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 13 13 11 5 1 6 10 7 1 -1 -4 2 5 3 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 75 61 54 40 27 7 21 18 352 327 313 355 3 88 109 133 226 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.5 29.1 29.1 28.2 27.9 27.6 25.0 22.0 20.8 21.2 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 149 147 145 145 149 156 157 147 145 142 117 86 73 76 83 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 4 5 7 6 6 3 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 66 69 73 73 77 77 76 78 77 80 79 75 70 64 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 11 13 14 16 16 19 21 24 23 21 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 0 3 6 7 17 20 22 -5 -11 -10 33 48 54 23 48 46 62 200 MB DIV 15 8 0 -1 0 57 81 130 140 140 80 69 26 14 0 2 7 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 -5 -3 -8 -4 -6 0 -3 -1 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 830 867 915 972 1010 1050 1020 896 708 548 398 384 227 366 624 1008 1439 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.3 8.0 7.6 7.4 7.4 8.2 9.9 12.1 14.4 16.9 19.1 21.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 98.5 99.3 100.0 100.5 101.0 102.0 103.2 104.3 105.3 106.5 107.7 109.1 111.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 5 6 8 11 13 13 13 15 20 22 21 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 15 14 14 14 17 21 30 15 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. 29. 27. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 13. 17. 18. 20. 17. 14. 12. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 14. 21. 31. 36. 44. 49. 51. 45. 37. 31. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.5 98.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972020 INVEST 07/05/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.24 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.19 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -4.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 15.4% 13.4% 9.3% 0.0% 12.8% 0.0% 10.9% Logistic: 0.7% 7.7% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.9% 16.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 8.0% 5.0% 3.3% 0.0% 4.5% 0.3% 9.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972020 INVEST 07/05/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##