* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP972019 07/20/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 25 28 32 40 48 54 57 56 54 52 50 V (KT) LAND 20 23 25 28 32 40 48 54 57 56 54 52 50 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 30 32 32 31 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 13 10 11 15 16 19 19 20 17 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 3 0 0 -4 -1 4 2 -2 -2 0 5 SHEAR DIR 79 87 93 85 70 60 32 22 18 358 329 289 258 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 28.4 27.4 26.7 24.8 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 153 152 151 153 155 157 148 138 131 111 100 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.9 -52.3 -53.0 -52.5 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 73 78 76 78 74 69 68 71 71 71 71 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 5 6 22 44 58 50 33 20 0 4 9 22 200 MB DIV 72 75 69 76 95 81 67 77 65 57 33 -11 12 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 -1 -1 -4 -8 -13 -14 -2 3 2 0 LAND (KM) 1074 1132 1201 1267 1335 1400 1339 1238 1113 1012 903 845 828 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.9 11.2 12.1 13.5 15.3 17.1 18.8 20.5 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 110.2 111.3 112.2 113.0 113.8 114.9 115.6 116.3 116.9 117.5 118.2 119.1 120.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 8 7 5 6 9 9 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 26 20 17 16 15 17 21 22 12 5 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 20. 27. 31. 34. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 20. 28. 34. 37. 36. 34. 32. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 11.1 110.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP972019 INVEST 07/20/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.41 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 41.4% 18.2% 11.6% 3.1% 16.8% 20.8% 23.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 9.6% 2.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.8% 0.9% 0.2% Consensus: 2.0% 17.0% 7.0% 4.1% 1.0% 5.9% 7.2% 8.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP972019 INVEST 07/20/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##