* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962020 10/11/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 27 26 25 25 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 27 26 25 25 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 26 24 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 28 26 22 23 19 19 24 27 25 29 32 36 41 47 55 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 0 1 0 -1 -1 3 2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 327 328 332 329 326 307 264 237 228 225 226 220 228 229 243 244 250 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.4 27.2 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 144 144 144 142 136 137 137 138 136 134 129 127 126 125 122 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.8 -55.0 -55.1 -55.4 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 42 43 44 44 44 42 43 37 37 36 39 39 42 40 36 32 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 4 4 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -28 -28 -15 -18 -20 -6 -18 -7 -12 -15 -26 -26 -47 -33 -47 -65 200 MB DIV -31 -33 -25 -6 -15 -9 -9 30 26 41 22 24 13 26 19 29 -7 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -5 -3 1 4 1 -1 1 3 5 4 1 0 -2 0 1 LAND (KM) 1915 1759 1620 1493 1368 1162 995 843 705 589 476 400 398 479 572 660 792 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.3 14.9 15.8 16.9 18.1 19.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.7 139.3 140.7 142.0 143.3 145.5 147.4 149.0 150.2 150.8 151.2 151.3 151.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 13 13 12 10 8 7 6 5 6 6 6 5 4 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 8 9 11 13 5 6 9 18 24 12 5 6 5 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 27. 27. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -18. -20. -23. -25. -29. -35. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -11. -14. -16. -17. -20. -21. -22. -24. -31. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.1 137.7 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 10/11/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.06 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.18 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.3 56.6 to 0.0 0.06 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 10/11/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##