* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962020 07/09/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 29 29 28 26 23 19 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 29 29 28 26 23 19 15 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 22 21 20 20 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 11 7 9 10 14 17 19 9 4 6 9 3 8 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 -4 -3 1 2 -1 -2 4 3 4 2 0 2 SHEAR DIR 108 106 89 69 71 75 98 83 62 44 243 248 218 211 208 231 234 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.9 27.0 27.4 26.0 24.6 22.4 22.0 21.3 20.8 20.7 21.0 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 133 133 132 129 130 137 124 110 87 83 74 66 64 69 72 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 67 66 64 64 68 69 74 78 73 64 59 52 46 38 35 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 37 24 21 34 86 88 80 72 33 9 -18 -30 -48 -57 -36 -11 200 MB DIV 52 57 60 48 49 43 37 62 67 4 -10 -14 -2 -6 -10 -8 -27 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -3 -8 8 2 -1 5 0 -7 -10 -15 LAND (KM) 1358 1357 1364 1377 1391 1429 1467 1402 1202 991 904 895 987 1017 1017 1005 974 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.8 15.8 15.9 16.0 16.0 15.7 15.6 16.9 19.1 21.6 23.7 25.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.0 121.1 121.2 121.5 121.8 122.3 122.5 121.5 120.2 119.7 120.8 122.7 124.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 3 3 2 2 7 10 13 13 14 10 4 1 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 6 6 5 3 4 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 23. 24. 24. 21. 17. 14. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.7 121.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 07/09/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.44 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.45 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -4.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.40 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.8% 15.8% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 14.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 6.2% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 4.7% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 07/09/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##