* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962020 07/07/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 39 43 47 49 48 44 40 38 36 35 32 29 25 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 39 43 47 49 48 44 40 38 36 35 32 29 25 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 26 25 25 24 23 21 18 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 7 7 6 8 8 7 8 9 17 20 18 15 9 11 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -2 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 -2 -2 -1 6 1 8 11 11 SHEAR DIR 172 188 170 118 112 93 62 123 114 115 92 107 97 67 18 332 301 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.0 25.5 25.5 25.8 26.3 26.4 26.0 23.7 21.8 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 137 135 133 131 128 120 116 116 117 124 127 124 102 82 71 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 67 69 69 67 67 64 64 64 64 68 69 67 63 63 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 11 12 13 12 12 11 10 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 43 46 46 50 49 34 48 77 97 100 118 88 38 -17 -39 -23 200 MB DIV 77 100 90 73 75 68 51 70 61 19 32 56 21 1 -17 -2 -5 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 0 -1 -2 0 0 0 1 0 0 -4 1 -21 7 4 LAND (KM) 1530 1542 1533 1524 1492 1468 1475 1475 1539 1628 1699 1687 1583 1360 1134 907 838 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.7 16.1 16.1 16.0 15.7 15.4 15.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.0 122.3 122.4 122.5 122.4 122.3 122.6 123.0 123.8 124.8 125.4 125.0 123.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 1 3 3 4 4 2 5 8 13 17 17 15 HEAT CONTENT 13 11 9 8 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 26. 26. 25. 24. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. -0. -3. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 14. 18. 23. 24. 23. 19. 15. 13. 11. 10. 7. 4. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.5 122.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962020 INVEST 07/07/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.66 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.72 6.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.60 5.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -5.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.75 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 31.4% 26.2% 0.0% 0.0% 21.6% 21.8% 0.0% Logistic: 30.7% 62.1% 48.5% 33.0% 17.3% 14.7% 2.2% 4.4% Bayesian: 2.2% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.9% 31.6% 25.1% 11.1% 5.8% 12.1% 8.0% 1.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962020 INVEST 07/07/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##