* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP962019 08/17/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 15 17 18 19 21 25 31 38 46 50 53 57 58 V (KT) LAND 15 17 18 19 21 25 31 38 46 50 53 57 58 V (KT) LGEM 15 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 17 19 21 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 17 17 15 14 13 12 10 7 7 9 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 -4 -4 -3 -1 -2 0 -4 -5 -6 -8 SHEAR DIR 92 109 120 117 115 109 94 100 95 74 82 92 108 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 141 140 141 146 152 154 151 150 147 147 146 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 64 63 64 63 62 65 65 65 63 64 61 64 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 6 5 4 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 10 19 30 28 37 43 39 33 28 29 22 30 27 200 MB DIV 41 28 40 48 60 81 74 71 57 68 31 24 -5 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 1 1 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 5 LAND (KM) 1858 1885 1926 1989 2045 2161 2310 2452 2218 1973 1756 1558 1390 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.6 14.5 14.2 14.0 13.6 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.0 12.6 12.0 LONG(DEG W) 126.2 126.7 127.1 127.6 128.1 129.2 130.8 132.8 135.1 137.5 139.8 142.1 144.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 5 5 5 7 9 10 12 11 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 20 19 18 21 23 16 14 18 22 20 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 13. 21. 28. 33. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 10. 16. 23. 31. 35. 38. 42. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 15. LAT, LON: 14.4 126.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962019 INVEST 08/17/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 19.6 to 1.6 0.23 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 15.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.54 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 6.0% 19.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 2.0% 6.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962019 INVEST 08/17/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##