* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 10/05/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 32 34 36 37 35 33 31 28 25 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 32 34 36 37 35 33 31 28 25 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 29 29 28 27 25 24 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 5 4 8 11 10 13 21 20 24 25 31 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -8 -5 -2 -3 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 338 329 274 265 278 265 257 267 265 256 252 255 277 SST (C) 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.2 25.7 25.5 25.1 25.0 25.3 25.7 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 135 131 130 130 125 119 116 112 111 115 120 122 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.4 -54.4 -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 64 64 62 57 53 47 40 36 34 35 34 34 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -20 -23 -25 -27 -38 -47 -52 -56 -47 -63 -49 -55 200 MB DIV 16 32 38 44 57 34 16 -8 1 -13 -6 -19 -20 700-850 TADV 3 2 2 1 0 2 3 2 5 3 4 8 -2 LAND (KM) 1927 1946 1959 1975 1995 2025 2026 2042 1983 1870 1725 1546 1324 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.1 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.8 20.9 21.5 21.9 22.0 21.9 21.5 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 129.3 130.0 130.5 131.1 131.7 132.9 133.9 134.9 135.9 137.0 138.4 140.1 142.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 8 8 8 6 5 5 6 7 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 8 6 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 3. 0. -4. -8. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 5. 3. 1. -2. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.6 129.3 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 10/05/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 19.6 to 1.6 0.65 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -33.0 to 156.2 0.37 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.79 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 15.5% 13.4% 8.8% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 6.1% 4.9% 3.1% 0.1% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 10/05/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##