* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 10/02/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 31 32 33 37 41 42 40 37 37 37 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 31 32 33 37 41 42 40 37 37 37 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 28 27 26 25 24 22 20 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 11 11 13 12 6 6 10 10 16 9 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 8 7 4 1 -4 -5 -4 -2 -1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 40 43 61 61 41 63 49 352 341 329 341 14 66 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.2 26.6 26.2 25.3 25.4 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 142 142 141 140 139 134 128 123 114 115 112 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 51 53 57 58 59 57 56 56 57 54 49 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 7 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 38 34 44 42 31 -1 2 2 -13 -18 -40 -49 200 MB DIV 45 35 24 10 25 31 3 7 -3 -5 0 -9 23 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1676 1715 1739 1748 1742 1723 1728 1733 1703 1674 1660 1641 1659 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.6 15.9 16.5 17.5 18.4 19.3 20.4 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 124.2 124.7 125.0 125.3 125.4 125.6 125.9 126.6 127.3 127.8 128.4 129.0 129.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 3 2 2 3 6 6 5 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 17 18 19 19 16 10 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 25. 27. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 12. 16. 17. 15. 12. 12. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.7 124.2 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 10/02/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.71 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.52 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.32 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.66 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.59 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.3% 18.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.5% 9.4% 7.5% 1.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 1.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 10.2% 8.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 10/02/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##