* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952019 10/02/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 21 23 23 26 31 36 37 38 37 36 35 V (KT) LAND 20 21 21 23 23 26 31 36 37 38 37 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 20 19 18 18 17 16 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 6 9 9 9 10 5 11 10 11 10 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 5 7 6 2 -1 -6 -5 -3 -1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 67 25 25 57 46 49 49 357 354 335 313 312 288 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.0 27.1 26.6 26.5 25.3 24.2 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 144 145 145 145 141 133 128 127 115 104 97 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 51 50 53 54 53 51 51 52 48 42 36 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 8 7 8 7 6 6 6 6 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 35 37 45 56 42 28 0 13 5 -5 -36 -42 200 MB DIV 51 56 50 37 24 35 47 11 2 17 9 -1 -17 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 0 1 1 2 0 1 1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1606 1645 1668 1677 1678 1658 1655 1644 1605 1543 1494 1419 1313 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.9 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.8 17.8 19.1 20.4 22.1 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 123.5 124.0 124.3 124.5 124.7 124.9 125.2 125.7 126.3 126.8 127.3 127.6 127.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 2 2 2 3 3 6 6 7 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 20 20 20 20 15 6 3 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 25. 29. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 3. 6. 11. 16. 17. 18. 17. 16. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 14.9 123.5 ** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952019 INVEST 10/02/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 19.6 to 1.6 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.72 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.65 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 7.3% 7.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 2.5% 2.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952019 INVEST 10/02/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##