* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952018 06/23/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 46 44 44 39 34 30 23 18 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 46 44 44 39 34 30 23 18 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 34 32 29 26 23 19 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 18 15 15 13 12 9 5 6 3 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -3 -2 1 -1 0 3 6 5 3 4 SHEAR DIR 54 50 50 59 53 28 24 357 332 306 267 228 235 SST (C) 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.5 27.8 26.5 24.8 23.1 22.6 22.4 22.6 22.8 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 151 149 142 129 111 94 89 86 86 90 89 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.4 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 63 65 66 64 64 59 51 45 44 42 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 9 10 12 14 11 13 11 9 8 6 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 18 25 39 51 42 43 44 40 41 47 36 36 200 MB DIV 52 44 39 40 41 41 3 2 -11 -7 -32 -15 -18 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -4 -7 -4 -7 -5 -1 -3 -4 6 0 LAND (KM) 1308 1279 1239 1181 1087 914 842 909 1090 1267 1397 1482 1582 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.8 14.8 17.0 18.8 19.8 20.1 19.9 19.8 20.2 21.1 LONG(DEG W) 115.8 115.8 115.8 115.8 115.8 116.1 117.3 119.3 121.7 124.0 125.6 127.0 128.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 5 8 10 12 10 11 11 9 6 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 16 14 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 768 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 18. 20. 22. 23. 22. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 5. 7. 4. 3. 1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 19. 19. 14. 9. 5. -2. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 115.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952018 INVEST 06/23/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.77 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.18 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 18.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.71 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -1.9 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 117.2 735.9 to -82.5 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952018 INVEST 06/23/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING