* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952017 09/11/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 36 38 38 35 30 26 21 17 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 36 38 38 35 30 26 21 17 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 30 29 28 26 23 20 18 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 13 14 13 13 10 16 20 18 19 21 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 0 -2 -1 -3 -2 0 -3 -3 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 92 89 107 107 125 156 197 210 233 241 243 237 218 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.5 26.9 25.9 24.8 24.1 24.0 24.5 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 152 151 149 140 133 122 109 100 98 106 114 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 69 67 64 61 58 53 46 38 34 31 31 31 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 59 58 67 58 36 30 -2 21 -5 -13 -33 -14 200 MB DIV 71 65 59 61 38 28 27 5 -17 -17 -22 -28 -18 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 7 9 6 8 8 2 -1 -9 -5 LAND (KM) 595 691 712 801 912 1061 1191 1215 1193 1143 1111 1118 1152 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.9 18.7 20.1 21.3 22.3 22.4 21.8 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 109.8 111.3 112.9 114.7 116.5 119.4 121.8 123.5 124.4 124.6 124.3 123.9 123.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 16 17 16 13 11 9 7 3 2 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 27 19 15 17 16 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=550) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 7. 13. 20. 24. 26. 27. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -9. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 13. 10. 5. 1. -4. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.6 109.8 ** 2017 E.PACIFIC RI INDEX EP952017 INVEST 09/11/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.80 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 18.9 to 1.4 0.33 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 0.0 to 106.7 0.18 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.49 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 2.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.06 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 116.0 735.9 to -82.5 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.1 times sample mean (15.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times sample mean (10.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 8.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.6% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 4.0% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.4% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 5.7% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952017 INVEST 09/11/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##