* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952016 08/14/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 28 32 34 35 33 31 29 31 30 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 28 32 34 35 33 31 29 31 30 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 21 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 8 8 8 6 10 15 19 17 19 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 0 0 2 -2 0 0 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 352 333 318 288 272 217 221 200 252 231 254 256 275 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.0 26.0 25.7 26.2 25.6 25.2 25.2 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 139 139 139 134 124 121 126 120 116 115 113 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 700-500 MB RH 59 57 57 55 54 50 46 42 41 40 39 37 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 6 6 5 5 5 5 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 12 11 5 9 10 7 8 19 25 19 15 32 25 200 MB DIV 8 5 18 28 23 27 7 21 3 8 -5 14 -12 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 2 5 7 10 9 9 13 LAND (KM) 1418 1447 1490 1532 1580 1657 1779 1937 2135 1936 1674 1449 1255 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.4 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.7 18.4 19.0 19.3 19.8 20.3 21.1 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 121.0 121.9 122.9 123.9 124.8 126.9 129.1 131.4 133.8 136.3 138.8 141.0 143.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 13 8 7 15 14 10 1 0 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 28. 31. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. -2. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 14. 15. 13. 11. 9. 11. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 15.0 121.0 ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952016 INVEST 08/14/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -22.0 to 38.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.3 40.3 to 144.5 0.76 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 0.0 to 75.9 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 38.9 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -11.0 to 135.3 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 128.4 638.0 to -68.2 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.1 to -1.7 0.17 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.4 81.4 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (12.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.8% 12.9% 13.6% 7.2% 3.8% 11.9% 6.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 4.5% 4.6% 2.4% 1.3% 4.0% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952016 INVEST 08/14/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##